The meeting of the joint committee of three private sector institutions (KorKor.) cut the forecast for Thai exports this year to minus 1.0-0.0%, but still views that the Thai economy should be able to escape the Technical Recession, although GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 contracted quarterly. quarter As tourism continues to recover
Today (March 1), Kriengkrai Thiennukul, President of the Federation of Thai Industries As the chairman of the Joint Committee of the Joint Committee of 3 Private Sectors (KorKor.) in March 2023, said that Thai exports are likely to contract for a while. Due to the world’s manufacturing activities that are still in contraction. Concerns about global economic slowdown that causes businesses around the world to avoid stocking inventory including rebalancing inventory levels After the demand for products that benefit from COVID In particular, work-from-home products, such as computers and electronic devices, declined. In addition, the value of exported goods tended to decline in line with the direction of commodity prices.
causing the joint committee meeting of 3 private institutions (KorKor.), consisting of the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers Association It resolved to cut down its forecast for the value of Thai merchandise exports for the year 2023 down to a minus 1.0-0.0%, compared to the previous estimate that was expected to grow by 1.0-2.0%.
The product group that is a factor pulling Thai exports this year Kriangkrai stated that It is a group of vehicles and automotive parts. to computer products and electronic equipment In contrast to food and agricultural products that are likely to be the few product groups that can still grow this year. In the midst of a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine,
CRC Mongthairod Technical Recession
However, the CRC does not expect the Thai economy to enter a technical recession even though Thai GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 contracted by 1.5% compared to the previous quarter. Because tourism will be the main factor supporting the economy in the first quarter to recover. And it is expected that the number of foreign tourists throughout the year will increase to about 25-30 million people, which is higher than the previous estimate of about 22 million people. 3.5% according to the original framework that was previously assessed Headline inflation is expected to be in the range of 2.7-3.2%.
In addition, the CRC also views that the global economy is less likely to experience a recession. Due to the economic activity of major countries in February improved. This was supported by improved service sectors such as travel, tourism and construction. especially the US economy that can still grow mainly from the service sector
However, the manufacturing sector continued to contract for the eighth consecutive month, directly affecting demand for industrial products throughout the supply chain. Meanwhile, inflation was higher than analysts’ estimates. As a result, the market is worried about raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) for a while.
Asking for stability of the ‘baht’ after heavy volatility
The meeting also emphasized that wage issues The volatility of the baht and higher electricity costs is also a challenging factor. which affects business operations The private sector therefore would like the government to allow the private sector to share their opinions on solving the problem. Including measures to help SMEs entrepreneurs to be able to adapt to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. and gradually increasing interest rates
In addition, the CRC meeting was of the view that Because the export sector tends to slow down according to the global economy. Therefore, the Thai economy should focus on stimulating domestic consumption. Accelerate government spending during the government transition Including taking advantage of the opportunity from the tourism sector that has continued to expand during this period To promote tourism that will distribute income to the community. This will help drive the economy to expand within the original economic projection.
