Even after changing the calendar year for a while But what an investment strategist like me continues to ask is the same story:
“What exactly is the main investment theme for 2023?”
The answer to this question is usually not difficult. But for this year, the theme of investment seems to come up or go out all the time, non-stop, starting from
- China closed the country, turned to open the country (China Reopening)
- Forecasting the economy from recession to no recession (No Landing)
- Market hopes that the central bank must cut interest rates become a high interest rate (Higher for Longer) can be accepted
In addition, electric vehicles (EV) or artificial intelligence (ChatGPT) are widely discussed.
To say which theme is the main theme doesn’t seem to have a definite answer.
However, in a year when uncertainty still engulfs the market. diversification to various themes to reduce risk It might be better than focusing on just a few themes.
Therefore, in addition to the above 5 themes that the market is already familiar with. I would like to present another ‘5 non-trendy themes’ that were prominent in the beginning of the year. have the opportunity to generate good returns Let’s share with us. and diversify investment even more
1. The ‘alternative’ theme of growing investment
Markets often use the abbreviation ‘From TINA to TARA’ or from There Is No Alternative to There Are Reasonable Alternatives.
The latest in Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey confirms that money managers around the world raise cash. commodity and alternative assets are the three must-have assets this year. Because with the US policy rate approaching 5.0%, liquidity in the system inevitably had to leave core assets.
for Thai investors I think that the opportunity for Alternative Assets lies in the ‘Asia Property Fund’ since it is less affected by US interest rates, does not lose FX hedging cost, and is also supported by the opening of China’s country.
2. The theme of investing outside the US or The Rest of World (ROW)
We discussed in an article last month that ROW or ‘non-US stocks’ could be the investment of the decade, just like the BRICs of the 2000s or the FANGs of the 2010s.
The MSCI ACWI Excluding US Index, which has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 since last November, is a good confirmation of its ROW-themed performance.
Even in the short term, Chinese stocks may reverse. But I believe that the correction was caused by the strongest rally in history. The rest of the world will see opportunities more clearly once the Fed stops raising rates.
Investors can keep an eye on ROW themes including China, Europe, Japan and EM at the same time.
3. High Inflation Theme
It’s one of those themes that has the potential to surprise all year round. Because the main support comes from better-than-expected economic recovery. Deglobalization Bargaining power workers and global supply chain adjustments.
that this theme is not as prominent as it should be I believe this is due to the average age of market participants around 45. Few of them have been through periods of high inflation. In addition, the impact of inflation on current investment is unclear whether positive or negative. with any asset or industry always
However, we can capitalize on the theme of inflation by ‘Time to invest’ because high inflation will result in a non-linear decrease in inflation. is an opportunity to invest Take profits (or take profits) when inflation is unusually high (or low)
4. Conflict Theme both domestically and internationally
It’s an ever-changing theme. It affects investment in two main ways.
One is domestic politics. It is the most careful form. Because almost every corner of the world’s economy is in a period of high inequality, high debt and high inflation, all three are high, often leading to people’s dissatisfaction. followed by controversy
The second group is political conflict between countries. In 2023, expect to face changes in supply chains, food security, energy, cyber to space. These risks are reversed but difficult to predict.
For investments, the conflict theme will cause safe assets to change their status. higher inflation and increase credit risk increase the importance of ‘Commodity’ in the portfolio
5. Next-Generation Commerce and Finance
It is an under-the-radar investing theme that is surprisingly outperforming the mainstream themes of the market.
The most obvious is Crypto’s rally against declining liquidity. followed by FinTech Online Retails and E-Commerce groups that, in addition to being able to reverse Still able to maintain most of the market share. even businesses It’s back to open normally.
I see the Next-Generation Finance and Commerce theme as the ‘dark horse theme’ that surprises the market just as much as the AI theme we saw earlier this year. Able to invest when the market corrects
All in all, these are the ‘5 Offbeat Themes’ that are worth keeping an eye on.
But whatever the investment theme of 2023 will be, I think it’s a strategy that is appropriate for investors who don’t follow the market daily. It is still a continuous investment or Stay Invest to generate long-term returns.
Portfolio adjustments or themes can not only be ‘focused’ on the main theme, but can be ‘spread’ across multiple themes to reduce the risk in a year when uncertainty prevails in the market like this year.
